The battle for sixth… and why teams might need to lose on final day

The battle for sixth… and why teams might need to lose on final dayJunior Kroupi scored Bournemouth's second goal in their 3-0 win against Crystal Palace on Sunday

Bournemouth have claimed the edge in the battle for sixth place in the Premier League – and what could be the strangest Champions League spot yet.

The in-form Cherries' 3-0 win over Crystal Palace helped them overtake Brentford into that position.

Even more remarkably there might be teams on the final day who might need to LOSE to end up in the Champions League.

At the very least sixth will earn a Europa League place – with some of the contenders having never qualified for Europe before.

BBC Sport looks into what this all means.

Both elements needed for sixth place to be a Champions League spot seem quite plausible.

Aston Villa would need to finish in fifth spot exactly (where they currently reside) and win the Europa League.

They trail Nottingham Forest 1-0 after the semi-final first leg, but are at home for Thursday's return leg.

This scenario will only play out if Villa finish fifth – and not in the top four (or below fifth) – because of a quirk in Uefa's rules.

The Premier League landed a fifth Champions League place because of English teams' performances in Europe – something called the European Performance Spot (EPS).

In short, when it comes to dishing out European spots, Uefa goes by domestic positions and who won the European trophies first, before factoring in the EPS.

So if Villa win the Europa League and finish fifth, that EPS spot would be passed down to the team in sixth – who would qualify for the Champions League.

However, if Villa finish in the top four then winning the Europa League would make no difference to any other English teams. In this situation the sixth-placed finisher would qualify for the Europa League.

With Aston Villa six points clear in fifth spot, sixth appears to be the highest any of the other teams could finish.

At the moment Bournemouth are on 52 points, one point clear of Brentford, who are in turn one point above Brighton.

Bournemouth and Brentford have never played in any European competition before, while Brighton's only Uefa campaign was in the 2023-24 Europa League.

Chelsea are four points behind the Cherries, but have a game in hand against Nottingham Forest on Monday.

Fulham are level on points with Chelsea. Everton – who have a game in hand against Manchester City – and Sunderland are on 47 points, so just about in the race.

Newcastle, Crystal Palace and Leeds could still mathematically – but not realistically – qualify for the Champions League.

Whoever just misses out on sixth will have the compensation of securing at least a Conference League spot, which as it stands goes to seventh place.

All the Villa/fifth-place shenanigans do not affect that – because if England gets that extra Champions League spot they lose a Europa League place.

But, and of course there's a but, eighth place could yet qualify for the Conference League.

If Manchester City win the FA Cup, or if Chelsea win it and finish in the top seven – they are currently ninth – then the European spots will change.

In that scenario, seventh place would get into the Europa League and eighth would be a Conference League spot.

It is unlikely to come to fruition but there is a chance the team in sixth place might need to lose on the final day to earn a Champions League spot.

Brighton are at home to Manchester United – and Brentford are at Liverpool.

Before Sunday's match between the Red Devils and Liverpool, third-placed United were three points ahead of Arne Slot's side, who were above Villa in fifth on goal difference.

If Brighton or Brentford were confident of holding on to sixth spot even with a loss – given they could be relying on their opponents to win and keep Villa in fifth place as explained above – that could get them into the Champions League instead of the Europa League.

As things stand eight English teams will qualify for Europe – but it could be as high as 10.

If Nottingham Forest win the Europa League and Crystal Palace win the Conference League (and don't finish in the top seven or eight), then half the league will be in Europe next season.

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