The reasons West Ham face relegation – and why they are unlucky

The reasons West Ham face relegation – and why they are unluckyWest Ham have added-time goal disallowed as Arsenal go five clear

When the dust settles on the West Ham United goal that was controversially ruled out against Arsenal, the cold reality is they are now probably facing relegation.

Data experts Opta give West Ham only a 12% chance of survival, with Tottenham Hotspur the only team they can now catch.

The Hammers thought they had rescued a draw at home to Arsenal on Sunday – with Callum Wilson firing home in added time.

But after a seismic video assistant referee review, the goal was ruled out for a Pablo foul on goalkeeper David Raya – a decision West Ham were furious with.

It meant Leandro Trossard's 83rd-minute goal was the winner.

As well as edging the Gunners closer to the title, Mikel Arteta's side did a favour to fierce rivals Tottenham.

Spurs now have the chance to move four points clear with two games to go when they host Leeds United, who can now relax as they as well as Nottingham Forest are safe, on Monday (20:00 BST).

"It's going to be tough," Hammers boss Nuno Espirito Santo – who started the season at Forest – told BBC Sport.

"It's not in our hands. We fight for it and we will keep on fighting. It is our responsibility – we represent a huge club and it's our obligation to go for it in these last two games."

West Ham's last season outside the top flight was 2011-12.

Wolves and Burnley are down – and Nottingham Forest and Leeds are now safe

West Ham could feasibly be relegated next Sunday – with a week of the Premier League season to go.

That would happen if Spurs beat Leeds on Monday and the Hammers lose at Newcastle United next weekend.

Spurs, who are one point above the Hammers with a game in hand, would be safe if they win two of their final three games.

After playing Leeds, they face Chelsea away and then Everton at home on the final day.

West Ham, who host Leeds on the final day, will need to pick up at least two points more than Spurs because of a significantly inferior goal difference.

Wolves and Burnley's relegations have already been confirmed.

"We played well," said Nuno after the Arsenal defeat.

"The character of the boys, the noise of the stadium. We knew the position that we are in and the boys gave it a proper fight.

"This is what we will try to do until the last minute of the season. Two games to go, it is our job to bounce back and fight and know that anything can still happen.

"Of course it is hard but we have been competing well, especially at London Stadium. The energy of the crowd was contagious for the boys. We're going to give it a go. This group of players will react."

Lack of consistency in officiating upsetting – Espirito Santo

The Hammers, if they go down, will have paid the price for stronger teams around the bottom of the Premier League this season.

They are on 36 points with two games to spare – and even if they lose both their remaining games, that would be the highest total to be relegated in a decade.

Newcastle went down with 37 points in 2015-16. In the previous two seasons nobody got relegated with 30 points or more. Just two years ago Forest stayed up with 32 points.

Since the Premier League moved to 20 teams in 1995-96, 36 points has been the average needed for safety.

Unfortunately for Nuno and West Ham the teams above them started picking up points at the key stage of the season.

The Hammers' form is not even bad – they are 11th in the six-game form table.

But Forest top that table – and are unbeaten in eight games – and Leeds are fifth despite only playing five games in that time. They are unbeaten in six matches.

Spurs have won their last two matches under new manager Roberto de Zerbi.

Hammers captain Jarrod Bowen said: "It's going to be tough. We never say never at this club. We have two games left. We did a lot of good things on Sunday. We have to win."

There was a bit of a managerial merry-go-round at the bottom of the table too.

Forest axed Nuno in September, with the Portuguese quickly taking over at West Ham, who had sacked Graham Potter.

Forest then appointed Ange Postecoglou, who had been with troubled Spurs last season, but sacked him before replacing him with Sean Dyche – who was then axed too.

The man who kept Forest up was Vitor Pereira, who had been sacked by Wolves in November.

Spurs replaced Postecoglou in the summer with Thomas Frank, but he was sacked – and interim Igor Tudor also left – before they landed on De Zerbi, who has guided his new team out of the relegation zone.

Rob Edwards could not keep Wolves up, while Burnley did not part ways with Scott Parker until after they were relegated.

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